If Dell (DELL) should decline in its post-earnings after-hours trade tonight then shorts should be ready as the historical data favors a deeper move in the red in the next day's regular session.
DELL has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 14 of the 28 quarters we've tracked over the last seven years, adding to its negative trade eight times in next-day action, or 57% of the time, and reversing direction six times. This is a slim advantage so shorts may not want to be too overconfident.
On the long side, we'd be sitting on the fence before jumping in as DELL has a mixed history on the heels of after-hours gains. It has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 14 of the 28 quarters we've tracked, seven times adding to its evening gain in next day trade and reversing its advance in seven events.
DELL is due with its Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.37 per share on revenue of $15.71 billion.
In terms of DELL's broader historical session-to-session performance, we've found the stock has outpaced its after-hours moves in next-day regular session trade following 15 of its last 28 earnings events. In the near-term, the stock is mixed, with two widening and two reversal moves over the last four quarters.
Here's the data:
On Nov. 18, 2010, DELL jumped 5% in night trading on the back of better-than-expected Q3 EPS and revenue results that were shy of estimates. The stock lost the bulk of its upside the next day, closing the Nov. 19 regular session up 1.6%.
On Aug. 19, 2010, DELL declined 2% in after-hours trading after beating Q2 expectations. The stock reversed direction the following day, ending the Aug. 20 regular session up 0.2%.
On May 20, 2010, DELL shed 2.9% in evening trading after besting Q1 estimates. The stock headed further south the next day, closing the May 21 regular session down 6.7%.
On Feb. 18, 2010, the stock fell 5.1% in after-hours trading despite a Q4 beat. The stock fell 6.7% the next day.
On Nov. 19, 2009, DELL was hit for a 6.2% decline in evening action after missing Street estimates for Q3. The stock slumped deeper in the red the following day, ending the Nov. 20 regular session down 9.9%.
On Aug. 27, 2009, DELL advanced 1.5% in after-hours trading after topping Q2 expectations. The stock edged just higher the next day, rising 1.7% in the Aug. 28 regular session.
On May 28, 2009, DELL edged up 1.4% in evening trading on the back of better-than-expected earnings and revenue just shy of expectations. The stock lost some of its gain the next day, ending the May 29 regular session up a more modest 0.7%.
On Feb. 26, 2009, DELL advanced 2.6% in after-hours trading after missing Q4 revenue expectations but beating on earnings. The stock added to its gains the following day, ending the Feb. 27 regular session up 3.9%.
On Nov. 20, 2008, DELL advanced 5.9% in after-hours trading after topping earnings expectations but also missing on revenue. The stock turned south the next day, losing 5.2% by the Nov. 21 regular session close.
On Aug. 28, 2008, DELL tumbled 10% in after-hours trading after missing earnings expectations. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the Aug. 29 regular session down 13.8%.
On May 29, 2008, the stock gained 9.5% during evening trading after beating Q1 earnings expectations. The gain was trimmed to 5.7% the next day.
On Feb. 28, 2008, DELL declined 1.2% in after-hours trading after reporting Q4 results below expectations. The stock added to its downside in the Feb. 29 regular session, losing 4.7% by the close.
On Nov. 29, 2007, the stock fell 9.8% during evening hours after the company tops the Q3 sales estimate but misses by a penny with EPS. The stock fell 12.8% the next day.
On Aug. 30, 2007, DELL edged up 0.4% after topping Q2 expectations. However, shares gave back those gains and a little more the next day. It closed the regular session down 0.7%.
On May 31, 2007, DELL jumped 5.3% in night trading after beating Q1 expectations and announcing job cuts. However, shares couldn't hold onto that momentum and cut back its gains the next day. Shares ended the regular session up 1.4%.
On March 1, 2007, the stock fell 1.8% in the evening session after reporting lower than expected revenue but beating on EPS. Shares nosed up 0.7% the next day.
On November 21, 2006, DELL jumped 8.6% in night trading after topping Q3 earnings expectations and meeting on sales. Shares rose further the next day, closing the regular session up 9.3%.
On Aug. 17, 2006, DELL dropped 5.2% in after hours when the company matched Q2 expectations but disclosed an informal SEC inquiry into stock options. The shares regained some ground the next day, ending the regular session down 2.8%.
On May 18, 2006, DELL firmed 4.3% in the evening session after reporting in line and saying it expects Q2 to look similar to Q1. The stock gained by a slimmer 2.5% the next day.
On February 16, 2006, DELL eased 0.8% in night trading after it beat Q4 estimates but guides Q1 in line to slightly lower than expected. The shares dropped further the next day, ending the regular session down 4.9%.
On Nov. 10, 2005, DELL was down 1% in after-hours trading after the company matched Q3 expectations and guided mostly in-line for Q4. It turned to the plus-side in regular session play on Nov. 11 and ended the day with a slim 0.6% rise.
DELL slid 7.6% on the night of August 11, 2005 after matching EPS targets but falling short on revenue, and guiding Q3 revenue below the Street. It narrowed that loss a bit, to down 7.4%, in the August 12 regular session.
On May 12, 2005 DELL advanced 2.6% in evening trading after the company reported in-line EPS, revenue shy of expectations, and guided in-line to higher. It followed that upside move with a firmer jump to the plus-side on May 13, rising 7.4% in the regular session.
On Feb. 10, 2005, DELL declined 3.3% in night trading after reporting in-line sales, better-than-expected EPS, and a slightly weak outlook. The stock added modestly to its downside the next day, losing 3.8% by the Feb. 11 closing bell.
On Nov. 11, 2004 DELL gained 2.1% in night trading after the company reported in-line results and guidance. The stock surged higher in next-day trading, closing out the Nov. 12 regular session up 8.5%.
On Aug. 12, 2004 DELL added 2.6% in after-hours trading after the company reported in-line results and guidance. It closed the Aug. 13 regular session up a more aggressive 4.2%.
On May 13, 2004 DELL slid 3.1% in night trading following the company's better-than-expected results and in-line guidance. It narrowed its declines slightly the next day, closing bell-to-bell play down 3%.
DELL gained 1.3% the night of Feb. 12, 2004 on matched revenue expectations and better-than-estimates EPS. It added 2.9% by close of the Feb. 13 regular session.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
No comments:
Post a Comment