Friday, March 14, 2014

Plug Power: The House Always Wins

Fuel-cell stocks have run out of juice today after Citron Research panned Plug Power (PLUG) in a note today and FuelCell Energy (FCEL) reported earnings.

Ramsay de Give for The Wall Street Journal

First up: Citron’s report on Plug Power, in which the firm likened Plug Power to playing in a casino:

A casino stock, by contrast, is the lowest form of speculative moonshot. A casino stock can trade twice its outstanding shares in a single day, while turning over its entire float on people gambling that they can find a buyer at a higher price … Who really cares about anything else, right? The recent volume and share price surge in Plug Power demonstrates how Wall Street treats this stock: nothing more than a casino.

Who is behind PLUG, and what do they do? This is simple: Plug Power sells fuel cell-powered forklifts … with fuel cells they acquire from [Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)]. Nothing fancy here, folks. Same business model since the 2000 crash … Well over a decade as a public company, during which they have lost close to $850 million, while developing no IP or meaningful revenue growth.  Profitability? Forget about it!

In other words, Plug Power is not Tesla (TSLA). As for FuelCell Energy, its feeling the heat today after reporting earnings in-line with analyst forecasts, in part because of the Citron report, and in part because when your stock has more than doubled in price in less than three months, you better beat earnings.

Shares of Plug Power have dropped 41% to $6.12, while FuelCell Energy has fallen 21% to $3.12, Ballard Power Systems has declined 26% to $5.10 and Tesla is off 1.8% at $234.57.

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