Thursday, August 30, 2012

Low M2 Growth Makes Deflation Look More Likely than Inflation

M2 growth (data here) fell to 2.7% (on an annual basis) in the week ending December 21, 2009, the first time since the summer of 1995 that annual M2 growth was below 3%, and the lowest growth rate since a 2.4% reading in late July 1995 (see chart above).

The growth rate of the monetary base (data here) has also been falling, and is now below 20% for the first time since early October 2008 (see graph below):

MP: For those worried about inflation, I think you better tell the money supply to start growing a little faster for your fears to be realized, because deflation looks more likely now than inflation, based on the monetary aggregates? Doesn't it?

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