SM: Betting On the Super Bowl

The biggest sporting event on the American calendar will arrive next Sunday and with it, the biggest betting day of the year.

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The New York Giants will face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. More than 100 million people are expected to watch on television. Many don't care about either team, but care a great deal about the outcome of the game, the total points scored and any number of other statistics.

They've got money on the line, and plenty of it.

Betting parlors in Las Vegas, known as sportsbooks, can count on taking in some $90 million in wagers for the Super Bowl. Hundreds of millions more will be wagered through offshore betting sites, illegal bookmakers or between pals across coffee tables covered with salsa and guacamole.

The Patriots are a three-point favorite. Of course, they were a 14-point favorite at one point in 2008 when they last met the Giants in the Super Bowl. But the Giants won 17-14 an upset that made people a lot of money.

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With that in mind, we sought out a few pointers from people who have made a living from sports betting, including professional gamblers J.R. Miller and Lem Banker; Howard Schwartz, the former owner of the Gambler's Book Club in Las Vegas; Gary Olshan, chief analyst of The Gold Sheet, a weekly sports bettor's guide; and Jimmy Vaccaro, director of sports operations at Lucky's Race and Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Here's their advice on how to enjoy the game without losing your shirt:

Key Statistics

Data is limitless. But Mr. Miller likes to focus on four key numbers: yards per pass attempt and total rushing yards, and how each team's defense performed in these categories.

"The problem is you've got two quarterbacks here that may be the best in the league," says Mr. Miller, author of "How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Point Spread."

Indeed, the Giants, led by quarterback Eli Manning, had 7.7 net yards per pass attempt this season, compared with 7.9 for the Patriots, led by Tom Brady. However, during the playoffs, the Patriots have extended their edge in this category, gaining 8.6 yards for every pass attempt compared with 7.5 for the Giants.

The Patriots have a distinct edge in rushing, piling up 1,764 yards during the season, compared with 1,427 yards for the Giants. The Patriots also have the edge during the playoffs if you discount the Giants' wild-card game against the Atlanta Falcons, since the Patriots received a bye in the first round.

Mr. Banker, author of "Lem Banker's Book of Sports Betting," recommends focusing on a team's point differential. This number would suggest a huge rout for the Patriots, who outscored opponents by 171 points this season, compared with the Giants, who scored six fewer points than their opponents.

Finally, on defense, both teams suffered so many injuries during the season that the only apt comparisons are how they have performed in the playoffs.

The Giants held opponents to 5.8 yards per pass attempt, significantly better than the Patriots' 7.1 yards. The Patriots performed better against the run, though, holding its opponents to 260 rushing yards the past two games, compared with 297 for the Giants' opponents.

The Over-Under

Gambling on the total number of points scored, known as the "over-under," is one of the most popular wagers on Super Bowl Sunday. The over-under stands at 55, or about 25% higher than an average NFL game this season, which makes sense since the Giants averaged 24.6 points this season, while the Patriots averaged 32.1.

One thing to keep in mind: The Super Bowl will be played indoors on an artificial surface, with no impact from wind, rain or mud, a so-called fast track. That's usually conducive to scoring, especially for the high-octane offenses of the Patriots and Giants. "People seem to think this is going to be a pretty high-scoring Super Bowl, and you can see why," says Mr. Olshan.

Hedge, Don't Root

Mr. Vaccaro says Lucky's will offer as many as 350 different "proposition bets" wagers on everything from how many sacks Giants defensive end Justin Tuck will have to each team's total yardage.

Gamblers get into trouble, Mr. Vaccaro says, when they use these bets to root for their favored team rather than to hedge. If you've placed a lot of money on a Giants upset, placing bets on Mr. Manning or Mr. Tuck to have big days could worsen the damage. If you like the Giants, why not place some smaller bets on Mr. Brady's passing, or the Patriots defense having a big game to minimize potential losses.

Ultimately, the best advice probably comes from Mr. Banker, who points out that most people who bet on sports lose money. "What you really want to do is listen closely to what your friends are doing," Mr. Banker says. "Then do the opposite."

matthew.futterman@wsj.com