Samsung Could Boost ’12 Capex 50%

Korean business daily Maeil is saying Samsung (SSNLF) will increase its 2012 semiconductor capex by as much as 50% from 10.3 trillion won ($9.1 billion) in 2011 to 15 trillion won ($13.2 billion), writes Tim Arcuri, semiconductor analyst at Citigroup Investment Research this morning.

That kind of capex from Samsung — the most ever spent by a chip company in a single year — is largely from an 8 trillion won investment in logic/foundry. Arcuri at Citi says of the capex jump:

“Seems high, but not out of the realm of possibility. Our last check two weeks ago indicated a more flattish capex outlook for Samsung in 2012 � still very strong relative to bearish expectations for the sector � and we still think a 50% Y/Y increase may be on the high side.”

Evolving drivers in the logic space that support rising Capex, according to Arcuri:

40%+ unit growth in iPhone + iPad from Apple (AAPL) based on CIRA estimates means significant logic capacity addition at Samsung for A5/A6 production.

Samsung�s Galaxy smartphone success adds demand for more logic capacity.

Likelihood for 28nm CPU foundry orders from AMD due to Globalfoundries� ongoing yield struggles and Samsung/Globalfoundries� process similarity.

In August, when we blogged about Sanford Bernstein�s Mark Li’snew coverage of the Asian semiconductor supply chain, Li said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the largest contract chip manufacturer, would win Apple’s chip tabbing business from Samsung in coming years.