Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Indications: Stock futures up; Bernanke, Italy in focus

MADRID (MarketWatch) � Attempting to shake off Italy-inspired global market turmoil, U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open Tuesday with investors eyeing upcoming testimony from Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke and data expected to show a rise in new-home sales and consumer confidence.

On the earnings front, Home Depot Inc. HD beat Wall Street earnings expectations.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJH3 rose 19 points, or 0.1%, to 13,807, while those for the Standard & Poor�s 500 index SPH3 rose 1.8 points, or 0.1%, to 1,489. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NDH3 rose 1.75 points to 2,704.

Click to Play Dow suffers worst session of 2013

Blue-chip stocks headed toward their third decline in four sessions as Italian election exit polls raised fears the country might abandon austerity measures. Paul Vigna has details on The News Hub.

Gains came as heavy selling hit most risk-assets with Europe and Asia markets tumbling after an inconclusive Italian election result triggered renewed fears of political instability in the euro zone. Gold and the yen were among the few assets gaining. For Wall Street, a sharp bout of selling came just before the close on Monday.

Strategists said it would be hard for U.S. investors to step around the Italy mess for Tuesday.

�A revival of the European debt crisis as a consequence of the Italian elections yesterday will definitely make investors worry more, and I think we�ll see a period of time here where the major feeling will be risk off instead of risk on,� said Henrik Drusebjerg, senior strategist at Nordea Bank.

Drusebjerg said futures may not hold on to those gains much longer, though consumer confidence data may provide some support for Wall Street if it comes in as expected. The Conference Board�s consumer confidence index is due for release at 10 a.m. Eastern time and economists expect the gauge to bounce back from 58.6 to a reading of 62.3 for February. The Tell: What to watch on the U.S. economy on Tuesday.

It is one of a number of reports, but the one that will be the most closely watched on Tuesday. At 9 a.m. Eastern, there are two housing reports due, Case-Shiller and the FHFA home price index. The Case-Shiller index showed home prices declined slightly in November, but rose 5.5% against the same period a year ago.

Also at 10 a.m. Eastern, data on new-home sales is expected to show a rise to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 384,000 in January from 369,000 in December, according to a survey from MarketWatch.

And the Fed�s Bernanke goes before the Senate Banking Committee at the same time for the first of two days of testimony on the U.S. economic outlook. Read: Bernanke may push back against hawkish talk and Bernanke bump: Stocks tend to rally on testimony.

Looming spending cuts in the U.S. were another reason the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA had its worst session of the year on Monday, closing down 216.40 points, or 1.6%, to 13,784.17. March 1 is the deadline for U.S. lawmakers to reach a deal to avoid automatic spending cuts, known as sequestration. Read: U.S. stocks slide as Italy, sequestration hit.

The other reason was Italy�s parliamentary election. Turmoil swept through Europe markets for a second day on Tuesday after voters in Europe�s third-largest economy delivered an inconclusive result. See The Tell: ECB bond-buying program might not be there to save Italy.

AFP/Getty Images Enlarge Image Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi speaks at a rally earlier this month.

In a sign of backlash by Italian voters over austerity programs, former comedian Beppe Grillo�s antiausterity 5-Star movement was the largest single vote winner with around 25% of all votes. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi�s center-right alliance narrowly missed winning enough votes to form a majority in the Senate, while a center-left alliance headed by Pier Luigi Bersani won a narrow majority in the lower house.

Economist Nouriel Roubini tweeted this Tuesday: �Italy is headed to new elections within six months as election results make Italy ungovernable. It is political, economic [and] financial chaos.� Read: 'Ungovernable' Italy: Debt crisis back on table.

�Yesterday, markets took a play that the Italians would vote sensible, but they didn�t,� Drusebjerg said. �Nobody expected that. That�s one surprise. The previous surprise is that Berlusconi has any kind of chance to return to politics.�

The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP fell 1.2%, while Italy�s benchmark FTSE MIB index XX:FTSEMIB sank 4.4% as Italian banks tumbled. Read: Italian election gridlock rattles European markets.

Yields on Italian bonds surged, while the euro was getting close to its January low versus the dollar. Read: Euro slides further as Italy vote rattles markets.

Investors moved toward the Japanese yen and gold for safe-haven cover, while crude oil prices also dropped 83 cents to $92.28 a barrel. Also read: Goldman Sachs cuts 2013 price forecast.

In corporate news, Home Depot HD reported fourth-quarter profit rose 32%, but the home-improvement retailer said it expected 2013 fiscal year earnings of around $3.37, below the$3.49 consensus forecast. Shares rose 1% in premarket action. See: Home Depot's net jumps 32% on extra week results.

In other corporate news, RadioShack Corp. RSH said it swung to a loss of $63 million, or 63 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, while same-store sales dropped 7%. See: RadioShack swings to loss in Q4, misses views.

R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. RRD said its fourth-quarter loss widened as the largest U.S. commercial printer posted higher impairment charges and said revenue shrank. See: R.R. Donnelley loss widens on impairment charges.

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